Skip to content
GAMES
CHART
Chart
Games
Best games
Data
Guides
Latest news
Indie
Calculators
About
Contact
Chart
Games
Best games
Data
Guides
Latest news
Indie
Calculators
About
Contact
Home
Guides
Expected value
Expected value guides
1 guide, newest first.
Expected value guides, newest first
By category
Expected value
1
Game development
2
History
12
Internet & hardware
1
Items & crafting
4
Player spending
13
Randomness & guarantees
3
Release dates
17
Rules & ratings
3
Schedules & status
2
All guides
By game
'83
1
Black Desert
1
Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
1
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4
1
Command & Conquer: Generals – Zero Hour
1
Destiny 2
1
Diablo II: Resurrected
3
Diablo IV
1
EVE Online
2
Fable
1
Fellowship
1
Fortnite
1
Genshin Impact
3
God of War Laufey
1
Grand Theft Auto VI
1
Guild Wars 2
1
LawBreakers
1
Lords of the Fallen II
1
MapleStory
1
Mass Effect 2
1
Naraka: Bladepoint
1
Old School RuneScape
1
Overwatch
1
Path of Exile
1
Phantom Blade Zero
1
Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
1
Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance
1
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada
1
Team Fortress 2
1
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
3
Warframe
1
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War IV
1
Wuthering Waves
2
GC
Expected value
Expected value
Expected value for paid random items: what a rare drop costs on average
How to work out a loot box's expected value and the average cost of a rare drop, with a worked example using Apex Legends packs and UK prices.
29 Sept 2026
GamesChart needs JavaScript for some features. Every page is also readable without it.