Glossary
What is expected value?
Expected value is the long-run average result of a random purchase: what a rare drop costs on average, given its rate and price.
Published Updated
How it works
Take the average number of openings it takes to get an item, then multiply by the price of one opening. With a 2% drop rate and no guarantee, the average is 50 openings. A guarantee lowers the average a little and caps the worst case.
An average is not a promise. Many players pay less than it, and some pay far more.
In the games we track
- Apex Legends: with the 30-pack guarantee, a Legendary item takes 12.2 packs on average.
- The Elder Scrolls Online: a 2% Apex chance means 50 Crown Crates on average.
- Black Desert: the Mystery Outfit Box is priced in Pearls.
Loot box expected value has the full worked example with UK prices.
Games and guides
Sources
- Apex Legends FAQ (EA) – Apex Pack odds and bad luck protection, published by ea.com
More terms
- Action RPG
- Battle pass
- Battle royale
- Co-op
- Collectible card game
- Concurrent players
- Cosmetic item
- DLC
- Drop rate
- Early access
- ESRB rating
- Expansion
- First-person shooter
- Free-to-play
- Gacha game
- Hero shooter
- In-game purchases
- Loot box
- Looter shooter
- MMORPG
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- PEGI rating
- Pity
- Premium currency
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- Remaster
- Role-playing game
- Season
- Season pass
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- Survival horror
- Tactical shooter
- USK rating