Version 2026.Q4
Drop-rate index
The rarest result in each paid or earned random item we track, with the publisher's own rate, any disclosed guarantee and the average number of openings it takes.
| Game | Pool | Rarest result | Rate per opening (%) | Guarantee (openings) | Average openings | Source checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex Legends | Apex Pack | At least one Legendary item | 7.4 | 30 | 12.2 | 2026-09-29 |
| Black Desert | Mystery Outfit Box | [Event] Premium Outfit Box x10 | 0.5 | None disclosed | 200 | 2026-09-29 |
| Black Desert Mobile | Encarotia's Boutique (Pearl Shop) | Encarotia's Skein x2,000 (1 other item has the same rate) | 0.1 | None disclosed | 1,000 | 2026-10-03 |
| Guild Wars 2 | Black Lion Chest | Each Super-Rare contract (7 in the pool) | 0.006 | None disclosed | 16,666.7 | 2026-10-03 |
| League of Legends | Hextech Chest | Summoner Icon + 150 Orange Essence | 3.5 | None disclosed | 28.6 | 2026-10-03 |
| League of Legends | Sanctum – Exalted Skins banner | Exalted Skin | 0.5 | 80 | 66.1 | 2026-10-03 |
| Lost Ark | Legendary - Epic Card Pack | Legendary Card Pack | 20 | None disclosed | 5 | 2026-09-29 |
| Lost Ark | Legendary - Rare Card Pack | Legendary Card Pack | 4 | None disclosed | 25 | 2026-09-29 |
| Lost Ark | T3 Gem Chest (Lv. 1-3) | Level 3 Annihilation Gem (1 other item has the same rate) | 3.5 | None disclosed | 28.6 | 2026-09-29 |
| Magic: The Gathering Arena | Booster pack | Mythic Wildcard in place of the rare (1 in 30) (1 other item has the same rate) | 3.333 | None disclosed | 30 | 2026-10-03 |
| Naraka: Bladepoint | Aeon Treasure | Red (Extreme) reward | 0.6 | 100 | 75.4 | 2026-10-03 |
| Naraka: Bladepoint | Immortal Treasure | Red (Extreme) reward | 0.3 | 100 (first 100 only, once) | 86.5 | 2026-10-03 |
| Path of Exile | Curse of the Allflame Mystery Box | Tukohama's Jade Unique Finisher Effect (1 other item has the same rate) | 0.172 | None disclosed | 580 | 2026-10-03 |
| The Elder Scrolls Online | Crown Crate (chance per crate) | Apex reward | 2 | None disclosed | 50 | 2026-09-29 |
| Warframe | Axi A1 Relic (Exceptional) | Nikana Prime Blueprint | 4 | None disclosed | 25 | 2026-09-29 |
| Warframe | Axi A1 Relic (Flawless) | Nikana Prime Blueprint | 6 | None disclosed | 16.7 | 2026-09-29 |
| Warframe | Axi A1 Relic (Intact) | Nikana Prime Blueprint | 2 | None disclosed | 50 | 2026-09-29 |
| Warframe | Axi A1 Relic (Radiant) | Nikana Prime Blueprint | 10 | None disclosed | 10 | 2026-09-29 |
Games we track that aren't in this index
Either the publisher doesn't publish drop rates on a web page we can cite, or the game sells no random items. Their pages cover price, player count and age rating.
- '83
- Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition
- ANEURISM IV
- ARC Raiders
- Assassin's Creed II
- Baldur's Gate 3
- Batman: Arkham City
- BattleBit Remastered
- Battlefield 6
- BioShock
- BioShock Infinite
- Black Myth: Wukong
- Blade & Sorcery
- Bloodborne
- Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
- Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4
- Celeste
- Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
- Command & Conquer: Generals – Zero Hour
- Counter-Strike 2
- Crimson Desert
- Cuphead
- Dark Souls
- Dark Souls III
- Dead by Daylight
- Dead Space 2
- Destiny 2
- Deus Ex: Human Revolution
- Diablo II: Resurrected
- Diablo IV
- Disco Elysium
- Divinity: Original Sin II
- Dota 2
- Dragon Age: Origins
- Elden Ring
- The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
- The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
- ENDLESS Dungeon
- Enshrouded
- EVE Online
- Fable
- Fallout 2
- Fallout: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game
- Fellowship
- Final Fantasy XIV
- Fortnite
- Genshin Impact
- God of War
- God of War Laufey
- God of War Ragnarök
- Grand Theft Auto IV
- Grand Theft Auto V
- Grand Theft Auto VI
- Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
- Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
- Hades
- Half-Life
- Half-Life 2
- Half-Life: Alyx
- Helldivers 2
- Hollow Knight
- Inside
- It Takes Two
- Journey
- The Last of Us
- The Last of Us Part II
- LawBreakers
- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
- The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask
- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
- The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
- LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga
- Lords of the Fallen II
- MapleStory
- Marathon
- Marvel Rivals
- Marvel's Spider-Man
- Mass Effect 2
- Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater
- Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
- Metroid Prime
- NieR: Automata
- Old School RuneScape
- Ori and the Will of the Wisps
- Overwatch
- Persona 5
- Phantom Blade Zero
- Portal
- Portal 2
- Predecessor
- Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown
- PUBG: Battlegrounds
- Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart
- Red Dead Redemption
- Red Dead Redemption 2
- Resident Evil 2
- Resident Evil 4
- Resident Evil Requiem
- Return of the Obra Dinn
- SCUM
- Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice
- Shadow of the Colossus
- Sid Meier's Civilization VI
- Skull and Bones
- Slay the Spire
- Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
- Stardew Valley
- Starfield
- Super Mario Galaxy
- Super Mario Galaxy 2
- Super Mario Odyssey
- Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance
- SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada
- System Shock 2
- Tales from the Borderlands
- Team Fortress 2
- Tekken 7
- Throne and Liberty
- Titanfall 2
- Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
- Tom Clancy's The Division 2
- Uncharted 2: Among Thieves
- Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception
- Uncharted 4: A Thief's End
- Undertale
- Valheim
- Valorant
- War Thunder
- Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War IV
- What Remains of Edith Finch
- The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
- World of Warcraft Classic
- Wuthering Waves
- X-COM: UFO Defense
Which loot boxes have the rarest drops?
The index lines up the rarest result in each random item we track, using only the rates the publisher itself discloses. The spread is wide. EA's 30-pack guarantee means an Apex Legends pack gives a Legendary item in 12.2 openings on average, while the top result in Black Desert's Mystery Outfit Box takes 200, each of the two rarest items in Path of Exile's current Mystery Box takes 580, and each of Guild Wars 2's seven super-rare Black Lion Chest contracts takes about 16,667.
Which random items have a guarantee?
Four pools here have a disclosed guarantee: the Apex Pack, League of Legends' Exalted Skins banner (by the 80th draw) and two Naraka: Bladepoint treasures (an Extreme reward within 100 openings, once only for the Immortal Treasure). For the rest, the average is also where the long tail begins. A 2% chance takes 50 openings on average, but you need 114 to be 90% sure. Our guide to pity explains the difference, and the drop-rate calculator works out the chance for any rate and number of openings. To turn an average into pounds, see our guide to the expected cost of loot boxes.
Why do the Warframe rows measure time, not money?
The Warframe rows show one relic at each of its four refinement levels. Relics are earned in play, not bought, so those averages measure time rather than money.
Methodology
One row for each random item (pool) on our game pages. The rarest result is the one with the lowest published rate in that pool, and the rate is exactly what the publisher discloses, from the source linked on the game page. The guarantee is shown only where the publisher states one for that pool. Average openings is worked out, not copied: 1 ÷ rate, or (1 − (1 − rate)^N) ÷ rate with a guarantee on opening N, rounded to one decimal place. Where several results share the lowest rate, the average is for one particular result. The Epic Apex Pack is left out because EA doesn't say whether the 30-pack guarantee covers it. Naraka's Immortal Treasure guarantee applies only to the first 100 openings, so its average is for the first Extreme reward. Soft pity is not modelled because none of these publishers discloses a schedule. Rows are rebuilt from the game pages each quarter and whenever a publisher changes a rate.
Related
- GameApex Legends
- GameBlack Desert
- GameBlack Desert Mobile
- GameThe Elder Scrolls Online
- GameGuild Wars 2
- GameLeague of Legends
- GameLost Ark
- GameMagic: The Gathering Arena
- GameNaraka: Bladepoint
- GamePath of Exile
- GameWarframe
- GuideHow pity works, and what a guarantee really does to your odds
- GuideExpected value for paid random items: what a rare drop costs on average
- GuideAre loot boxes legal in the UK? The rules in plain English
- GuidePEGI ratings explained: what 12, 16 and 18 mean, and what "paid random items" means
Sources
- Apex Legends FAQ (EA), published by ea.com
- Black Desert NA/EU – Mystery Outfit Box probabilities (Pearl Abyss), published by naeu.playblackdesert.com
- ESO Support – Crown Crate odds (ZeniMax), published by help.elderscrollsonline.com
- Lost Ark odds for random items (Amazon Games), published by playlostark.com
- Warframe PC Drops – official drop tables (Digital Extremes), published by warframe.com
- League of Legends – The Sanctum and Hextech Crafting FAQ (Riot Games), published by support.riotgames.com
- NARAKA: BLADEPOINT – Treasure Drop Rate Info (NetEase), published by narakathegame.com
- Path of Exile – Mystery Box odds (Grinding Gear Games), published by pathofexile.com
- Guild Wars 2 – Disclosure of Odds (ArenaNet), published by help.guildwars2.com
- Black Desert Mobile – Encarotia's Boutique probabilities (Pearl Abyss), published by world.blackdesertm.com
- MTG Arena drop rates (Wizards of the Coast), published by magic.wizards.com
Cite this data
You’re welcome to use these figures in articles, research and videos. Copy a citation below and link back to this page so readers can check the source and date.
GamesChart’s text and figures are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a credit link to this page. Game art, logos and screenshots belong to their publishers and aren’t covered.