Guild Wars 2 drop rates

ArenaNet publishes the odds for the Black Lion Chest, Guild Wars 2's paid random item, on its own support site. Every chest gives four guaranteed drops: a Black Lion Statuette, that update's rotating guaranteed item and two items from the common pool. There is then a 10% chance of a fifth item, drawn from the exclusive, uncommon, rare and super-rare pools.

What the rates mean in practice

ArenaNet gives each pool's share of that fifth item: about 1.9% for a new exclusive, 1.2% for a returning exclusive, 5.0% uncommon, 1.8% rare and 0.04% super-rare. Those add up to about 10%, the chance of getting a fifth item at all, so we read the figures as chances per chest.

The rarest results are the seven super-rare contracts, such as the Permanent Bank Access Contract, at 0.006% each. That is one chest in about 16,667 for a particular contract. Even 1,000 chests give only about a 5.8% chance of a specific one, and about a 33% chance of any super-rare at all. A particular rare weapon (0.06%) averages about 1,667 chests. A new exclusive (1.9%) averages about 53, and 100 chests give about an 85% chance of at least one. Path of Exile's Mystery Box is another cosmetic box with published per-item odds, and the Path of Exile drop rate calculator runs the same sums for its rarest items at 0.1724% each.

ArenaNet discloses no guarantee for any of these pools. The statuettes in every chest are a separate currency, which this page doesn't value.

How it plays

Guild Wars 2 is an online role-playing game with fast-paced action combat and no subscription fee. Its open world, Tyria, is built around discovery: you can follow the content guide, head for landmarks on your compass or just pick a direction. Characters across the world have their own stories, and you are rewarded for helping or thwarting them through renown hearts and dynamic events.

You don't need to join a party to help other players in the open world, whether that's reviving someone, taking on a world boss or tackling a jumping puzzle. Each profession uses weapons differently, and you refine your playstyle by unlocking hundreds of skills and traits. In structured PvP every player competes at the same level with max-level gear.

Expansions add new maps, story and Masteries, including gliding in Heart of Thorns, mounts in Path of Fire, fishing and skiffs in End of Dragons, and a private Homestead from Janthir Wilds.

What it costs

The base game is free to play. On Steam UK the expansions cost £21.99 to £25.99 each at standard price, and the Starter Pack is £17.99. Chests are opened with Black Lion Chest Keys, bought with gems in the in-game store. ArenaNet doesn't list the gem price of a key or gem prices in pounds on a public page we could read, so we haven't put a price on a chest.

Black Lion Chests are paid random items in PEGI's terms: you pay gems for the key without knowing what the chest holds. We record PEGI 12 for the base game from its Steam UK listing, but on pegi.info its expansions Visions of Eternity, Janthir Wilds and Secrets of the Obscure are each PEGI 16 for paid random items under the criteria that took effect in June 2026 (see what PEGI's paid random items label means). We couldn't find an entry for the base game there.

Players

The 30-day peak on Steam Charts was 7,046 concurrent players on 3 October 2026. Most players use ArenaNet's own launcher, which Steam doesn't count.

How we checked

Odds come from ArenaNet's Disclosure of Odds page, read on 3 October 2026 (the page shows no date). Expansion prices are the Steam UK listings on the same day. pegi.info was searched for the base game and its expansions on 7 November 2026. The gameplay description is based on the publisher's Steam store page.

GamesChart is an unofficial fan site and this is an unofficial fan site page; it is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by ArenaNet or NCSOFT. Card art and page images: Balthazar key art, a wallpaper and in-game screenshots from the Guild Wars 2: Path of Fire Asset Kit, used under the ArenaNet Content Terms of Use. © ArenaNet LLC. All rights reserved. NCSOFT, ArenaNet, Guild Wars, Guild Wars 2, GW2, Heart of Thorns, Path of Fire, End of Dragons, Secrets of the Obscure, Janthir Wilds, Visions of Eternity, and all associated logos, designs, and composite marks are trademarks or registered trademarks of NCSOFT Corporation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Further page images: screenshots from ArenaNet's Guild Wars 2 Steam store page.