Calculator
Guild Wars 2 drop rate calculator
Your chance of Each Super-Rare contract (7 in the pool) from the Black Lion Chest in any number of pulls at Guild Wars 2's disclosed 0.006% rate. Pick any other disclosed rate below.
Chance of at least one drop in 10,000 pulls
45.1%
- Average pulls to get it
- 16667
- Pulls for an even chance
- 11553
- Pulls for a 90% chance
- 38376
- Pulls for a 99% chance
- 76751
Pulls along the bottom. The dot is your planned number of pulls.
How it works
Each pull is treated as independent, with the same chance every time. The chance of at least one drop in n pulls is 1 − (1 − p)n. With a guarantee on pull N, the chance is 100% from pull N, and the average number of pulls falls to (1 − (1 − p)N) ÷ p.
Some games also raise the rate a little in the pulls before the guarantee (soft pity). That isn't modelled here, so for those games the real average is a little lower than shown.
How pity works explains the maths in more detail.
Where these numbers come from
Rates are exactly as the publisher discloses them, with the source and the date we checked each one on the Guild Wars 2 page. We don't estimate rates a publisher hasn't published. Every rate publishers have disclosed, game by game, is in our Drop-rate index.
Game dataGuild Wars 26 disclosed rates · 6 prices · 7,046 players